Buckle Up: The 2024 Labor Market Predictions You Didn't Know You Needed
This month I’m peering into my crystal ball (aka trolling the internet) to learn what the great minds of our time think the job search and labor outlook is for 2024. Am I an economist? No. Am I a labor expert? Not really. What I am is a woman neck deep in supporting hundreds of people in their career advancement who has developed opinions about what this year might look like for employees. Strap in kids, cause it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Read on for my labor market predictions for 2024!
2023: The Great AI Adjustment
According to layoffs.fyi 1,186 tech companies laid off 262,595 employees in 2023. That’s about the population of Baton Rouge, Louisiana. But companies didn’t just lay people off, they folded in dramatic ways.
The shuttering of Convoy, Zulily, and hyper-active belt-tightening by executive teams thanks to the one-two punch of VC firms cutting funding and forcing layoffs and AI impacting 60% of jobs in developed economies, were major driving forces behind much of the layoffs we saw in 2023.
Bad news: Those trends aren’t going anywhere. (AI is still little more than a buzzword, we’re on the bleeding edge of real implementation and impact.)
Good news: We’ve mostly dug out of the pandemic job hole, and overall wage growth and labor participation are positive. But still, the layoffs continue, and many folks are coming up on a year or more of unemployment wondering where their stability went and if they need to change industries.
My hot take: Tech hype is dead. Look at applying your skills across industries like Infrastructure, Government, Healthcare, Security, or even Finance. These opportunities will likely pay less, but they’ll have the benefit of stability at a time when Tech and Consulting are experiencing massive upheaval that’s catching on other sectors.
Tone of 2024: Experts Optimistic, Workers Despondent
The fact is, economists do think the labor market is strong. U.S. employers added 353,000 jobs in January, with gains occurring in “professional and business services, health care, retail trade, and social assistance.” Meanwhile, wage growth remains above 4% while the unemployment rate is at a 70-year low. While that might feel contradictory to the constant stream of layoff news, it’s true. It’s just that the growth is largely focused in hospitality and retail trades making a comeback post pandemic rather than the tech roles that became so ubiquitously coveted and momentarily easy to get.
Among employers, “there’s a general optimism toward 2024,” says Dawn Fay, an operational president at Robert Half. “There’s this ambition to rightsize, normalize and get back on track.”
But “on track” is not how many employees are feeling. I recently spoke with one job seeker who shared how they felt after being told to update their resume for the umpteenth time, “It feels like I should just give up. It feels like more desperation. It feels like nothing I've done up til now has been good enough. It feels like I've been wasting my time.”
Are you looking for work? How are you feeling? Let us know by resharing and commenting.
What’s a Working Girl to Do?
Hands down, the way I am seeing employees land jobs right now is through network referrals. In this market, it really is about who you know. If you’ve been on the search for a while, it’s time to reevaluate your networking strategy. Here are some questions to ask yourself:
Do my people know that I’m on the search and what I’m looking for?
Am I communicating my need and ideal opportunity clearly?
Am I making the ask to be connected with potential connections from my network?
Am I following up with network connections, recruiters, and hiring managers repeatedly or am I sending one message and if they don’t get back to me calling it quits?
If you’re struggling out there, it’s time to practice some tenacity. You’ve already been practicing bravery and patience, but try a little brashness on for size. As they say, “fortune favors the bold,” and in this tight labor market, the people who are getting job offers are not the ones who have applied to 200 jobs but the ones who leaned on their network for support and found a referral.
Invest in Yourself
In the meantime, continue your professional education and learn a new skill (but maybe not UX). If you haven’t yet started playing with ChatGPT and listed it on your resume, you’re officially behind on the times. Using AI isn’t going to be siloed to one job or role, it’s going to permeate every level of every job that exists.
When I spoke with Zane Miller, Staff Software Engineer, about the role of AI in the future of work, he shared that AI will show up in ways you might not even realize, like generative search in CRMs and productivity tools. If you want to stay on the leading edge, start leaning on AI tools to solve everyday problems. Ask it for interview questions. Have it help you write a cover letter. It’s time you start treating ChatGPT like your intern whose copy should be thoroughly reviewed and verified, but given leeway to take the first stab at a draft.
Long story short, the factors that drove massive layoffs in 2023 aren’t going away. Folks still on the job search should consider switching industries and take a hard look at their networking strategy. Keep learning, keep growing, and above all:
Remember, you got this 💪
Morgan
Morgan McCaughey | Salary Advisor and Career Coach
CEO, Braggin Right
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